Stochastic Probability Theory – Pregnant Deer Scenario

In a remote forest, a pregnant deer is about to give birth to a baby.  

It finds a remote grass field near by a river and slowly goes there thinking it would be safe.

As she moves slowly, she gets labor pain, at the same moment, dark clouds gather around that area and lightning starts a forest fire.

Turning left she sees a hunter who is aiming an arrow from a distance.
As she tries to move towards right, she spots a hungry lion approaching towards her.

Now the river is also swollen with rain water coming down stream. The banks are getting overflowing with flood water.

What can the pregnant deer do, as she is already under labor pain?

     It is indeed a  critical situation:

  • What do you think will happen?
  •  Will the deer survive?
  • Will it give birth to a fawn?
  • Will the fawn survive? Or
  • Will everything be burnt by the forest fire?
Now let us come out of the story.  
What do you think the deer should do or will do?
Imagine you are in the place of the pregnant deer.    
Take a writing pad and write down, the best option or the possible scenario. Write what ever else you want to add.  We will see in the following pages if you are right, somewhat right or fully right.

That particular moment?…

  • Can the deer go left? – Hunter’s arrow is pointing
  • Can she go right? – Hungry male lion approaching
  • Can she move up? – Forest fire
  • Can she move down? – Fierce river
Indeed a very critical time in the life of that young pregnant deer. Will she deliver, see her young one come alive in this world and jump around? 

Answer is – She does nothing. She just focuses on giving birth to a new LIFE.
She is totally concentrated on selecting a soft grass bed, where her young one could safely land and see this wonderful world for the first time.  She is unaware of the dangers all around. 

You will be surprised. The

sequence of events that happens at that fraction of a second (moment) is as

  • In a spur of MOMENT, lightning from the cloudy sky
    blinds the eyes of the Hunter
  • At that MOMENT, he releases the arrow missing and
    zipping past the deer
  • At that MOMENT, the arrow hits and injures the lion
  • At that MOMENT, it starts to rain heavily and the
    downpour puts out the forest fire                   

Next MOMENT, the mother deer gives birth to a healthy fawn.

 In life, it’s always a MOMENT
of CHOICE and we all have to always deal with such difficult situations. Some
negative situations are so powerful and they overpower us. They make us
clueless. But like a new dawn breaking the dark night, such a situation may
melt away without a trace. 
Anything can happen in a MOMENT in this life    
We all feel the same. But, whatever one may call it, the priority of the deer in
that given moment was to give birth to a baby…because LIFE IS PRECIOUS. And the deer went by natural instinct of a mother!

Now check your answer, views, comments – whatever you wrote. Analyze the result yourself. It will give a lot to think

If you want to know more…….
This story is an illustration for Stochastic Theory
What is Stochastic theory? Stochastic means having a random probability, but not predicted precisely or accurately. In life so many events cannot be predicted with certainty. A threatening storm may pass off as  strong winds causing no damage at
Such complex situation are not uncommon in our life and in the work centre. Most of the time we press the panic button. We loose our cool, rational thinking. And seem to do irrational things, there by creating more mess. 

So How does one face the scenario? Steps are very simple: 

  • Keep cool, think and proceed cautiously
  • If required, consult your seniors or peers
  • Do not rush – analyze in all angles
  •  It is possible, the situation will turn out to be not so complicated as you
    originally thought
This is how  the story ends. 
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